OEM distributions...

Why? Why would any distro with an established userbase be a better choice?
Do the majority of the consumers in this market care about access to a large range of software that is the strength of a linux distribution?

It comes down to this. In a year, once the rush to market for netbooks is over and the device die-off begins... how will netbooks be marketted and sold? Will they be marketed as general purpose computers with the expectation to handle a vast array of software workloads? Or will they be marketed as gadgets like smart-phones or other mobile devices with a narrow set of expected functionality? I really don't think we know yet. The market is still in its infancy, with manufactures rushing to fill it up. Once the market gets crowded enough, competitive enough, we'll learn.

If these things end up being marketed and sold as mobile gadgets and not "computers" then there's absolutely no compelling reason for these oem's to use established linux distributions at all.... none. You line up cellphones and smartphones side by side across a number of manufacturers and how many different interfaces do you find? How much application variety do we find? Is the diversity of interface a problem? Is the narrowness of the application-space a problem?

If these things are the next generation of mobile gadget OEM's be better off using a base platform like moblin backed by coronary to build custom...differentiated...images for their specific brand of device instead of using an established distribution at all. The different interface designs become part of strategy to appeal to some portion of the very large market.

If these things end up being marketed more like laptops, there's probably pressure to use a common interface across devices..including other traditional laptops. But if that's the case, that pressure is going to also work against using linux and OEM's will end up being under consumer pressure to provide xp. The open source development model give Linux an advantage right now in that MS totally didn't see this market coming and wasn't prepared for it. But a year out from now, will linux continue to have that advantage if there is pressure for netbooks to be like traditional computers even if it means a bump up in price? I'm not sure.

It will be an interesting year. I expect 2nd/3rd quarters 2009 to be a bloodbath of competition in this space with some very innovative marketing efforts.

-jef