Jean-Luc Herren did the maths recently on the git list, in
<48E4ABC0.80100@gmx.ch>:
In case it's interesting to someone, I once calculated (and wrote
down) the math for the following scenario:
- 10 billion humans are programming
- They *each* produce 5000 git objects every day
- They all push to the same huge repository
- They keep this up for 50 years
With those highly exagerated assumptions, the probability of
getting a hash collision in that huge git object database is
6e-13. Provided I got the math right.
So, mathematically speaking you have to say "yes, it *is*
possible". But math aside it's perfectly correct to say "no, it
won't happen, ever". (Speaking about the *accidental* case.)