The Kernel Hacker's Bookshelf: Ultimate Physical Limits of Computation
Posted Jun 19, 2008 10:12 UTC (Thu) by Hanno
In reply to: The Kernel Hacker's Bookshelf: Ultimate Physical Limits of Computation
Parent article: The Kernel Hacker's Bookshelf: Ultimate Physical Limits of Computation
The singularity is not near. To be blunt, the singularity phenomenon is the quasi-religious expectation that a brighter tomorrow through technology is "certain" and universal deliverance of mankind is just around the corner.
The pretty good (though equally repetitive) book "Future-Hype" by Bob Seidensticker makes a good counter-argument:
Humans always made the mistake to extrapolate the future based on present development. When a rush of development in one technology leads to a jump in innovation, people would expect "exponential growth" in that area.
But that growth is not "exponential", it is only a significant jump compared to history, and it ends. Only because a jump in a different technology niche follows and futurists stop thinking about the previous jump anymore - that new tech is by now commenplace - doesn't mean that technology as such is developing at exponential rate and leading to a singularity.
Look at previous jumps in innovation: Steam, atomic power, plastics - each time when we were in their golden ages, people expected a superbright future based on these innovations.
> We live in the Golden Age of computing.
Indeed. And in history, each of those golden ages ended.
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