Multicores are admission of defeat - and they are here to stay...
Posted Apr 28, 2008 4:46 UTC (Mon) by
nevyn (subscriber, #33129)
In reply to:
Multicores are admission of defeat - and they are here to stay... by khim
Parent article:
Interview with Donald Knuth (InformIT)
Yes, it's going to be really hard to make HW faster in the future. All the HW people are saying that the big obvious gains have been found, and there are no more to come (for serialized instructions). Indeed there hasn't been a must have CPU upgrade in the last year or two, although they have got faster and in some cases the commonality of dual cores has been a boon. However that doesn't mean you can wave a magic wand and say "all software will be multi-threaded, and run correctly".
Now on the other hand we've had the possibility of doing multi-tasking for at least 20 years (via. fork() + large Unix boxes), mmap with a unified cache might be a bit more recent. pthread_create() is a bit more recent still, and having it all be accessible via Linux is even more recent. But it's fair to say that you could "fairly easily" get access to 2 CPU boxes 10 years ago.
But with 10 years lead time the SW has basically made zero progress, it's still just as hard and just as error prone to write C+pthread code. Now maybe, due to dual core by default, there will be some breakthrough in the next 10 years ... or maybe we'll all magically start (re-)writing in erlang/whatever. But personally I doubt it, I find it much easier to believe that the answer from the SW people will be "128 core CPUs are irrelevant, start getting used to things not getting faster".
The combustion engine didn't get significantly faster forever, and the world didn't end ... I imagine the same will be true here.
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