Bureaucrats

Don't be too quick to laugh. India went from near-zero on the technology front to virtually
obliterating the low-to-middle tiers of the programming industry in the United States. I may
not be impressed by their code, but I'm very impressed by their achievements. Very few nations
have been able to get the same level of manpower or enthusiasm.

As for the Mongols, if they are known and revered in history for anything, it is skillful use
of manpower and overwhelming enthusiasm. No, I don't see them charging across the Gobi
wielding razer-sharp Apple laptops, but I do see them turing a creative drive, a passionate
energy and their natural creative brilliance towards technology, once it becomes realistic to
use and has a realistic use. (There's plenty of evidence in Mongolia that these people have
extremely high levels of artistry, creativity and inginuity.)

I doubt the Mongols could seriously threaten the world economy with their programming might -
but I wouldn't be betting against it either. I do see them competing heavily with India with
regards central/eastern Europe and countries that are ethnically or linguistically closer to
them than to the Indian subcontinent. I could certainly see them doing well in the Open Source
world and they may end up major contributors to projects like the Open Library. I could also
see them contributing towards innovative projects aiming at getting computing out in the
field, as many inventors in the West have this nasty habit of staying where it's warm and dry.
This limits exposure to alternative ideas, alternative approaches and unconsidered situations.

Writing off a people, for any reason, is usually a bad mistake. Another group worthy of
examination are the Romanians. Their nation isn't in the best of states right now, but stop
and think about where they have been when things have gone well. They have buildings with
external frescoes - an achievement in itself - that are over 400 years old and show no signs
of fading even in intense sunlight. Name me a regular external paint with that kind of
warranty. Sure, paints don't make a computer, but it shows an innate nature to experiment and
invent, a curiosity to see what will happen if. If you can establish how to feed that kind of
fire, stoke it up a bit, provide it a means to run rampant, I could see things getting
interesting there very quickly.

Now, regardless of whether what I expect would be remotely likely to be the consequence of
getting technology to them, I would point out that social engineering rarely works as expected
(if at all), culture shock and concerns of outside interference can drastically alter the
outcome, and accelerated cultural development has never worked but has almost invariably been
a catastrophic disaster.

It follows that any introduction of new technology must be with an eye to how the recipient
thinks and feels, and it must also be very hands-off. There must be no pressure to use the
system the way an "outsider" might want them to, or to use it at all. It has to be "their"
thing, or it won't work.

(This is why Microsoft's involvement with OLPC is so scary to me. Yes, scary. Once you have a
dominating overlord in the picture, the natural suspicion of outsiders is going to create
problems. Not just for Microsoft but for everyone. We might be ok with Microsoft controlling
what we learn, but you'd be a fool to think they'd passively accept it. A nation indoctrinated
during the Cold War that the West are a bunch of imperialists discovers their education system
is being run by a Western megacompany that does have a habit of coming across, well,
imperially, and that said company has bought out their beaurocrats as well. That generally
produces Very Bad Reactions, especially in poor or unstable regions. At best it would be a
social disaster - at worst, it would be catastrophic on par with every similar example in
history.)