... being very cynical indeed

My impression is that Microsoft the software developer is not in favour of Software patents,
since for anyone doing programming they represent at best a legal minefield. However,
Microsoft has a large legal department, which gets to draft all its license agreements, and to
make public statements about Microsoft policy. For such a department Software patents are an
empire building opportunity, each new threat must be countered by hiring more lawyers, who
report to Microsoft's head attorney, making him more important and powerful (and perhaps
richer too). He has personally and in his role at Microsoft expressed strong support for such
patents and for any other expansion in "intellectual property" using a variation of the broken
window fallacy to justify them as economically positive.

With Ballmer in control rather than Gates I'd say the emphasis on software development is
over, and Microsoft has matured into a more typical company where the executives have a very
limited grip on the nature of the company's core activities. Such a company is much more
likely to use Software patents as a weapon, but correspondingly less likely to be able use
this threat effectively. Actual patent lawsuits from Redmond would be a sign of weakness and
should elicit cheers from everyone in the Free Software camp except the people whose doormats
they actually land on.