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Mitigation strategy

Mitigation strategy

Posted Feb 3, 2008 12:37 UTC (Sun) by man_ls (subscriber, #15091)
In reply to: Mitigation strategy by ikm
Parent article: LCA: Bruce Schneier on the two sides of security

If we're talking about fear here, we're always talking about dependency, because fear is always a result of being dependent.
I'm not sure I follow you here. If a pack of wolves suddenly appears behind me, how is the fear I feel a result of being dependent? I'm dependent on what exactly, on the wolves? On me? On some other people appearing and saving me? If I just hear wolves howling and the hairs on the back of my head suddenly all stand up, where is the dependency? Or when I find a snake in the grass and my palms get all sweaty? When lightning strikes beside my tree? I'm just trying to understand your statement, honestly.

Precisely for this kind of fears we are very well equipped. For the rest, not so much. You argue that a bunch of statistical numbers are not meaningful, and for some perils you are right: a careful assessment is better than a generic one. But e.g. with elevators we are not talking about a high risk or a low risk; statistics tell us that casualties due to cabin falls are zero, or so close to zero that they are not meaningful. 6 passenger deaths per year in the US, mostly due to falls into an open shaft and entanglement of clothes into the door. We don't depend on the internals or the people who maintain them; we shouldn't even worry about cabin falls. In short: they are safe devices, in the same league as escalators. When the cabin bumps in its way there should be no reason to be fearful, and yet we cannot avoid our hearts racing.

In contrast, with cars we all know that regardless of the condition of driver and car we are dependent on the good will of all other drivers. Even if everything else is in perfect condition, if a drunk driver invades your lane or doesn't stop at a red light you are done. Here statistics and anecdotal evidence tell us that we are in peril every minute we pass in a car. How come we feel cozy and secure in our vehicles? Once more, bad judgment.


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Mitigation strategy

Posted Feb 3, 2008 18:16 UTC (Sun) by ikm (subscriber, #493) [Link]

> I'm not sure I follow you here. If a pack of wolves suddenly appears behind me, how is the
fear I feel a result of being dependent? I'm dependent on what exactly, on the wolves? On me?
On some other people appearing and saving me? If I just hear wolves howling and the hairs on
the back of my head suddenly all stand up, where is the dependency? Or when I find a snake in
the grass and my palms get all sweaty? When lightning strikes beside my tree? I'm just trying
to understand your statement, honestly.

You feel fear because you can't do much about the situation. You're dependent on something
else which would resolve the situation. You have to hope that the wolves aren't after you,
that you're not stumping on a snake, or that the lightning isn't striking at you. You're
dependent on the whimsical mercies of a chance. You're dependent just because you don't seem
to be able to resolve the situation yourself.

> But e.g. with elevators we are not talking about a high risk or a low risk; statistics tell
us that casualties due to cabin falls are zero, or so close to zero that they are not
meaningful.

Who cares about what they say? I've met many people who were saying many different things. Why
would I want to believe? Let me have my own statistics and draw my own conclusions. What I
know is that falling from great heights is dangerous and can be lethal, that metals are very
tough, that the elevator's engines are very powerful and can easily tear me apart -- that's
what I KNOW. Don't you think it kinda contradicts what these statistics of yours say? Why
would I want to believe them then?! You can say that nuclear power plants are safe, and I
would never agree -- just because they inherently contain sources of dangers, no matter how
perfectly confined they are. Same with elevators.

While I personally don't have any elevators' fears, I assert that the line of thought I
presented is totally legitimate and has its merits, and I also think this is the way any
living being makes its assessments.

> In contrast, with cars we all know that regardless of the condition of driver and car we are
dependent on the good will of all other drivers. Even if everything else is in perfect
condition, if a drunk driver invades your lane or doesn't stop at a red light you are done.

I would disagree here. A good driver is not just someone who knows how to turn left and right
and how to tell red from green, but a person who actually knows his stuff, sees problems
coming, sees if other persons don't behave right on the road, anticipates everything and
doesn't get into problems as a result.

What you push here is that we should trust somebody who is presumably much more clever than
us. What I push is that, first of all, we should trust ourselves, and if somebody wants to
earn our trust, he should indeed earn it first. I personally see no problems in how people do
their assessments -- they might not always be right, but they are doing the right thing. If
they are wrong, it's probably lack of information -- but you can't just shove this information
down their throats and expect them to accept it. Most probably, it will be rejected as being
too different from what they know already -- and that's the right thing for them to do.

Mitigation strategy

Posted Feb 3, 2008 22:25 UTC (Sun) by man_ls (subscriber, #15091) [Link]

You point at a good strategy to make our irrational fears go away, or at least keep them under control: not knowing how something works can make us fearful. Therefore, learning how things work can take us a long way to controlling our fears. And that is exactly what engineers have been doing since before History started: learning how things work and then controlling them. That is how people learned to build boats and entered the sea; how they built huge temples which defied our sense of stability; and even how they built those megaliths which still amaze us.

The point is, even if you know the Bernoulli effect by heart, even if you understand the principles of aeronautics and have compiled flight crash statistics yourself, you may not be able to stop your palms from sweating the first time your plane lifts in the air. Or even the hundredth time. Still, it's not that bad for a grassland monkey! :D

Mitigation strategy

Posted Feb 4, 2008 0:40 UTC (Mon) by ikm (subscriber, #493) [Link]

All fears are very rational in the end, so if your palms still sweat after the 100th time, try
another approach at understanding what you're actually afraid of :)

Mitigation strategy

Posted Feb 7, 2008 17:09 UTC (Thu) by dkite (guest, #4577) [Link]

I wouldn't like to fly with a pilot that doesn't fear what he does. In 
other words, a mistake can kill. The fact that this fear is real and 
vivid and acted upon makes air travel as safe as it is.

People act foolishly when afraid because they don't know what to do. On 
the other hand people regularly are hurt or killed at their workplace 
because they didn't know that they should be afraid.

How many times has people in this readership been afraid to apply a 
change to a working system? The fear moves you to double check, get other 
input, set up a test system, whatever.

Personally, when I fear things that I encounter regularly, I find out 
what to do. Not to allay fear, but to know how to act safely.

Derek (who in his work is regularly in situations that could kill him)

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