Posted Oct 3, 2007 5:47 UTC (Wed) by khim
In reply to: Good diagnosis, wrong conclusion
Parent article: Memory part 2: CPU caches
We're hearing this tune for quarter-century: in the next few years x86 will be hopelessly outmatched and replace by fade-of-the-day (RISC, VLIW, EPIC, etc). This predictions stubbornly fail to materialize. The fact is: unless you can show drastic increase in speed (not percents, times) - no one will bother. Even if will show drastic increase in speed - you'll only manage to grab tiny niche if you can not run existing tasks as well as x86-solution (see Itanic vs Opteron). So any solution which have any hope of winning must include x86. It can include specialized instructions and cores (for multi-core CPUs) which can only be used by specialized software, but if it's not x86-compatible at all - it's no starter.
Of course you can win some new, specialized market (ARM did this for mobile applications), but you can not push x86 from servers and desktops. And niches tend to evaporate over time. The only big one PPC occupies today is game consoles - and few programmers interact with them...
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