Sounds like FUD

Posted Jan 16, 2007 21:19 UTC (Tue) by dougm (subscriber, #4615) [Link]

Posted Jan 16, 2007 21:25 UTC (Tue) by pr1268 (subscriber, #24648) [Link]

Perhaps my assessment that Vaughan-Nichols' article is anti-Linux FUD was a little too harsh. At least he recognizes how Sun's CDDL is problematic and their decision to go GPL (be it v2 or v3) is beneficial for everyone.

It'll be interesting to see how v2 and v3 co-exist once v3 is official.

Posted Jan 16, 2007 21:41 UTC (Tue) by louie (subscriber, #3285) [Link]

Posted Jan 16, 2007 23:43 UTC (Tue) by Duncan (guest, #6647) [Link]

It's also a /very/ good move for Sun, given that Linux is pretty much
stuck with GPLv2 since it doesn't have the "or later" clause and all those
disparate people, some of whom will be virtually impossible to track down
and others of whom aren't likely to want to go GPLv3 even if Linus and
company did, own chunks of the copyright.

Linux /could/ go GPLv3, simply putting a v2/v3 license on new code and
letting normal code churn make its dent for a few years, with a jump-start
by getting the blanket permission of the core hackers, but it would be a
multi-year (say 5) process and would ultimately involve some code
rewriting toward the end. So we're looking at 2012 at minimum, before the
code would even be entirely dual-GPLv2/v3 licensed, at which point they
could discontinue the GPLv2 side. Five years is quite an eternity in
software, particularly FLOSS, which would give a competitor a possible leg
up. Of course, it appears Linux isn't going anywhere but GPLv2, which is
just as well, but it /does/ give Sun the strategic ability to seize the
momentum and gives them the best chance they're going to get to become the
underlying kernel to GNU during the GPLv3 era much as Linux was during the
GPLv2 era.

So that's their strategic angle -- they have the opportunity to /maybe/
provide the kernel to GPLv3 GNU as Linux did to GPLv2, and they are taking
it and running with it! The odds might not look great, but they're the
best they'll get, particularly if it's coupled with the switch to 64-bit
as discussed in that ESR link someone posted. They also have a legal
angle, because as mentioned they've been working hard with the GPLv3
process to ensure it meets all their patent requirements and the like
(that was a big part of the CDDL, BTW, and I don't consider it an accident
that they've been working with RMS on making it a strong part of the GPLv3
too).

As for Java, due to the existing community GPLv2 (with exception) efforts
in that area, it was a rather better match than the GPLv3, and Sun played
to take full advantage of it with their GPLv2 (with identical exception),
while at the same time acting to cut off the more liberally (Apache)
licensed Harmony project.

Meanwhile, the Samba folks announced they'd be going GPLv3 in the wake of
the Novel/MS patent cooperation agreement, given the loophole that made in
the GPLv2, the announced plugging of the loophole in GPLv3 as a result,
and their stand on the matter. That's been announced for some time, then,
tho the speed at which they announced it after the Novell/MS thing
certainly indicates the big discussions had already taken place, and they
were just waiting out the clock before announcing it.

Of course, it's a given that all the GPLv2 licensed GNU projects will be
going v3 when it comes out, since the FSF has the copyrights and can do
so, so that's no big surprise, either.

In fact, based on all the above hints and analysis, I've been predicting
that Sun was at minimum seriously considering GPLv3-ing Solaris since at
least the GPLv2 Java announcement, and was hoping against hope before
that.

I've also been predicting that if RMS proves prescient on the DRM stuff
and to have acted wisely enough to have well sealed the Novell/MS
loophole, the effect will be the weakening of the GPLv2 into what amounts
to a BSD license, and thus the weakening of any software that remains
GPLv2 licensed, at least where there are solid GPLv3 alternatives, as
unable to meet these new challenges. That specifically includes Linux,
altho if it happens, the fall will take some time. Again, there's one OS
that can be best positioned to take that slack if it comes, and that's
Sun's Solaris.

For many years, people looked at computing history and saw the rise and
fall of once dominant software and platforms, and predicted Linux could
overshadow MS just as it has been doing to the BSDs and both MS and Linux
had been doing to the older proprietary Unix versions. The logical
question of course was what could then possibly take Linux down, with it
being Free Software and all.

Now we have an answer. It could be that Linux is even now in its heyday
and will never seriously challenge MS on the desktop. If DRM and patent
cooperation agreements make the GPLv2 and with it Linux into what amounts
to another BSD, something's gotta take the slack, and I'm sure we
all /hope/ it isn't MS! Apple might be better... or not, look at where
Steve Jobs is positioned re Disney.

It's a gamble, but Sun is positioning Solaris to take the mantle should
Linux lose it. Five years from now, Solaris and Linux may well have
switched positions, and everyone may well be talking about GNU/Solaris...
Take a look at xfree86/xorg and tell me it can't happen. Nobody seemed to
predict that in LWN's yearly predictions article and followup comments. A
year later in Jon's examination of how he did, IIRC he pointed that out --
it was totally from left field, tho looking back, the hints were there.
If this happens... wow! Let's just say that I've figured out every year's
an exciting year for FLOSS, but that would be the biggest one in awhile,
and hard to top for sure.

OTOH, perhaps Linus is right and all the DRM and patent cooperation stuff
will eventually blow over, and all this ruckus about the GPLv3 will look
like a tempest in a teapot.

In any case, the gamble might be a long one, but one certainly can't blame
Sun for trying to strike gold, which is exactly what they're positioned to
do if Linux mis-steps during this GPLv3 thing. If it pays off...

Duncan