Your previous (2002) predictions
Posted Jan 2, 2003 3:50 UTC (Thu) by
fyodor (guest, #3481)
Parent article:
Obviously incorrect 2003 predictions
While making your new 2003 predictions, its too bad you
didn't also review (or even link to) your 2002 predictions. For the record, here they are:
- Linux systems will suffer a major security
incident -- I guess we had the Slapper worm, although I
think we did far better than MS in 2003. I'm surprised the
press hasn't taken more notice of the horrendous
beating IE has been taking in the last few months. If feels
like groups such as PivX and Greymagic have been finding
critical, remotely exploitable code-execution bugs every week (on average -- they come in clumps)!
- We will lose a major distributor -- It sounds
like you renewed this one to your 2003 prediction that at
least one of the 4 UnitedLinux partners will "exit the
distribution business". I find "one" to be a conservative
estimate.
- Workable free software business models will begin to
emerge -- Maybe. The Tech market (including Linux) is
still pretty darn bleak, although many Linux shops have been
holding their own. I find the Redhat "Advanced Server" program, their increased emphasis on a subscription model, and some of the IBM embracement of Linux interesting in this light.
- Desktop Linux will be taken far more seriously --
This is another renewal to your 2003 list.
Who knows, this might finally be the year. I am a bit skeptical
that we will make huge progress in popular (non-geek)
desktop adoption.
- The legal situation will get murkier -- Here you
presciently noted that "A high-level U.S. court ruling
against the DMCA is possible". I don't know if the Dmitry
court counts as "high level", but you deserve credit for
this one :).
- Alternative kernel trees will grow in importance
-- Many (probably most) people have used their
distribution's kernels for years now. I don't know that alternative tree poopularity
has actually increased.
Nobody is perfect, but I find your predictions
more insightful than most other lists. In a similar vein, I really miss your old "Linux in
History" section. Most importantly, I'm hoping LWN will be around to do many more annual predictions, whether they turn out to be accurate or not :).
--Fyodor@Insecure.Org
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