The Grumpy Editor's Obviously Incorrect 2006 Predictions
Posted Jan 6, 2006 11:24 UTC (Fri) by
Duncan (guest, #6647)
Parent article:
The Grumpy Editor's Obviously Incorrect 2006 Predictions
My "safe" prediction is that LWN will /continue/ to advocate FLOSS in name
only, while it remains closed source itself. I'd very much love to be
wrong on this, but I see no indication that I will be, and every
indication that I'll be right. =8^( Maybe this year will be the year I
decide I can no longer support LWN with my subscription dollars, no
matter /how/ much I support the message it /claims/ to support, when its
actions demonstrate otherwise. (Subscription renewal coming up, and I'd
renew without hesitation were it not for that mixed message, given I
HIGHLY support everything else I've seen from LWN. I'd been thinking
about upgrading, too, so it'll probably be renew but won't upgrade, and
might downgrade and/or reduce renewal term. Yes, tho I won't personally
get anything out of the code release as I'm not a site developer, I do
believe in the principles, one of the reasons I've justified supporting
LWN and it's contribution to the community to date. Unfortunately, this
has been "coming soon" for far too long, and it's failure to appear is
beginning to make a difference in my LWN support decisions.)
The three legal predictions would appear almost self-evident, or at least
the first and the last. GPLv3 is slated for community evaluation this
year, and how could that /not/ dominate the news in a Linux context?
About the only way I could see it /not/ dominating the news for at least
six months would be if it changes say two words from the present v2, and
even /that/ would be big news for a couple weeks, anyway, after the
lead-up we've had, and I'm sure would cause some to propose a fork, which
of course would generate news for a few weeks of its own, whether it
succeeded or not.
Likewise with the broadcast flag and software patents. Now, a really BOLD
prediction, yet not all /that/ bold given the proposed SonyBMG settlement,
would be that the momentum swings the other way -- that yes, the issues
are back, but that the best case the anti-freedom forces can hope for is
that what results does /not/ pass.
Anyway, a BOLD and OPTIMISTS prediction here, is that SonyBMG will
actually go no-DRM AND make that a marketed selling point! Clearly, there
are hints that such /may/ happen, if the EFF and the like are signing on
to the settlement. If it does, SonyBMG would be nuts not to try to turn
dross into gold and market their new no-DRM stance. If we get them on our
side...
(One probable personal result of getting them on our side is that I might
actually buy the multi-hundred-slot Sony jukebox style CD player I might
have otherwise bought this Christmas, when I upgraded my stereo, if I
hadn't been actively boycotting Sony! I've had my eyes on it for awhile,
and it'd be one way to nicely house all those CDs after I rip them to more
portable formats. I've had my eyes on something like that for awhile, and
would very likely have bought one, if I'd not been boycotting Sony this
Christmas. That's several hundred $$ they lost, on this single former
customer alone.)
The kernel module thing has been building, but while I'm not as in tune
with the kernel as Corbet is, I wouldn't have predicted it would come to a
head this year. Rather, I would have predicted it would build to become a
rather noisy (noiser) debate this year, but actually come to a head next
year. Of course, the two closest things to that that Corbet predicted
last year that I wouldn't have agreed with, the Debian release, and no 2.7
kernel (if one looks to the comments on last year's predictions, I thought
it might happen 9-12 months out, tho I agreed for six), Corbet turned out
to be correct. We'll see!
In the other areas, I've less of an opinion. Linux (or OOo anyway) on the
(office, particularly government) desktop sounds like a reasonable
prediction of current trends. OOo alternatives discovered would be nice.
Some of us get tired of reading about OOo and not the others, all the
time, but I don't have much of an opinion other than that.
De-bloating -- that'll be one I'll be watching. 3rd world developers
coming online as a driving force is reasonable, but there's the Gnome type
debloating, which seems to be a dumbing down as well, and the KDE type
debloating, faster and more usable with each release in the 3.x series,
while retaining user choice. Obviously, I'm a KDE style proponent.
Anyway, debloating has IMO all too often been a watchword for depowering
the user choice, so it's something I'll be watching with interest and
caution, if indeed it does get big this year. I think the trend
prediction is right, particularly with the third-world developers coming
online, but I'm not sure it will be this year, and how that debloating
occurs is my biggest worry, in any case.
Perl-6, no opinion. I'm more interested in python, these days. EMACs, no
opinion. I can do VIM if needed, but I prefer mcedit or kwrite for most
things, and nano (the Gentoo default) as a small minimally linked
emergency editor. Debian, no opinion.
Fedora, interesting. It does seem Ubuntu and OpenSuSE/Novell have stolen
the limelight, but Fedora/RH is big enough to keep going on momentum alone
for quite sometime, as it seems to have done so far. Thus, I think the
prediction is accurate, from my limited knowledge on the subject.
Likewise the Ubuntu/Canonical and Novell predictions. Interesting and I
agree, alto I've limited knowledge on which to form an opinion.
"The pace of kernel development will not slow" is a comfortable and
comforting prediction, as it means things on the kernel side continuing
much as we've known them. It does remind me of the Mark Twain / Samuel
Clemens quote "The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated." People,
even as high as Andrew Morton, continue to predict that the kernel is
maturing and the pace of change /has/ to slow down at some point, but then
end up wryly pointing out how wrong they were predicting that the point
was "now", a few months later, looking at the kernel statistics. Thus,
the prediction that development will not slow is only predicting more of
the same, while at the same time being a gentle prod at those that keep
predicting it /will/ slow, only to be proven wrong when it doesn't.
The Linux gadgets and iPod alt-OS predictions appear to be on track.
Interesting times we live in.
A bad vuln in Firefox must occur eventually, and given its profile, it
would seem this would be the year, so that prediction is only realistic.
What will be more interesting will be the reaction, both from users and of
the devs. So far, the relatively small problems FF has had have been
handled decently well, so here's hoping they prove helpful drills for the
big one which must ultimately come. (Maybe this year I'll actually merge
FF and see what all the hubbub is about -- said as a KDE user who has seen
little reason to switch from Konqueror, to date, particularly as a libre
software supporter and AMD64 user for whom compatibility on pages
expecting proprietary flash or Java and the like doesn't mean a lot.)
Duncan
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