A 2005 retrospective

A 2005 retrospective

Posted Dec 22, 2005 9:27 UTC (Thu) by Duncan (guest, #6647)
Parent article: A 2005 retrospective

I pointed out in responses to last year's predictions that the xfree/xorg
split was the one thing that nobody predicted, but where all the signs
were there. This year's equivalent would have to be the kernel's
Bitkeeper/Git switch. The signs were there, but nobody predicted that
2005 would be the year.

Both seemed to come out well -- the community seems better for each.

Anybody dare trying to predict 2006's version?

Looking back at my replies there (wow, I was a posting hog! <g>), I called
Jon's no 2.7 kernel prediction "bold", because while I considered the
likelihood small, and didn't expect it until Q4, I thought it might happen
then, and the reasons might look obvious in hindsight. Obviously, that
25% max I gave it didn't happen.

My "bold" prediction was that malware would get dramatically worse, to the
point it would begin to be obvious that MSWormOS had issues that Linux
didn't, and folks would begin switching in measurable numbers for that
alone. I'll call that half-right. I didn't expect it to be /quite/ as
big as Sony, so that part was fulfilled /far/ beyond my expectations.
It's seeming to have repercussions in other than software, tho. I
expected Linux would get a more direct bump, because I expected the
problem to remain in the software realm. I missed the move to the media
realm, so the implications for society are bigger than I predicted, but
the implications for Linux aren't as direct as I predicted.

One could predict big things either way along that line, for year 2006.
I'll predict that the repercussions from Sony, and another similar big
event, will bring DRM/malware to the forefront this year. It is said
there are serious discussions going on at Sony right now, about a major
change in policy. I'll predict the Sony thing, coupled with that other
event, will either cause one big media company to reverse course and
actually start MARKETING the point that they are DRM free, or the question
will come up, the choice rejected, and a new determination to do "whatever
it takes", upto and including overtly risking customer's computers and
data, will be accepted. If the latter, it will naturally take some
pushing of various mandatory DRM and DRM-liability-exclusion laws thru
Congress to accomplish. Hopefully, however, it'll be the former. That
would of course be a big reversal in stated policy, but at least for CDs,
not such a reversal in facts on the ground, tho it would be for DVDs. For
CDs, in any case, all the company would be doing would be reverting to the
previous status quo, except that they'd be marketing up a storm over it,
now.

There was some comment discussion on SCO's Legend product as well as the
litigation. I predicted that Legend wouldn't make a very big splash,
because people would by that point be deliberately avoiding SCO licenses,
so they'd only be selling to an ever-shrinking captive audience. It
certainly hasn't been big, but perhaps because they began soft-pedaling
the litigation, the aversion factor hasn't been what I expected.

My big prediction for year 2006 is that the little government
OOo/Firefox/Linux adoptions we keep seeing will get big enough this year
to begin to make a noticeable dent in MS' market share, in at least one of
those areas. Unfortunately, my comments proved too optimistic about
Firefox's share last year, but I'm predicting one of those three is going
to get big enough to begin to get painful for MS, led by Government
adoption, this year.

If either of the two big predictions there come true, and the DRM/malware
one doesn't go the wrong way, I could be a very happy camper come this
time next year. However, I believe the time is right for at least /one/
of those two, so I'll make both and hope I get lucky on one. If BOTH hit,
WOW!

Duncan

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