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Novell: Vista will drive users to Linux (News.com)

News.com covers comments by Novell CEO Jack Messman concerning cost of conversion to the next version of Windows. ""The cost of migrating to Windows XP to Vista will be higher than the cost of migrating to Linux and that will push migrations to Linux," Messman said. Novell says it is making real gains on the desktop in Europe currently and that many organizations are choosing its Linux Desktop product especially in vertical industries that require locked-down clients with limited functionality."
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Novell: Vista will drive users to Linux (News.com)

Posted Sep 12, 2005 20:08 UTC (Mon) by alspnost (guest, #2763) [Link]

Yes, don't we all wish this was true, but I'm not so sure. People may just stay on XP for a bit longer, but when they buy a new PC they'll "get" Vista anyway. Few people will "pay" for Vista, just as few "paid" for XP, unless the whole industry paradigm changes.

This frightening monopoly is going to be harder to beat than we all hope, I fear. We're just waiting for Microsoft to make a crucial strategic mistake, which I hope they will, but I'm not seeing it yet.

Novell: Vista will drive users to Linux (News.com)

Posted Sep 12, 2005 20:29 UTC (Mon) by RMetz (guest, #27939) [Link]

"The cost of migrating to Windows XP to Vista will be higher than the cost of migrating to Linux and that will push migrations to Linux." - Mr. Messman

"People may just stay on XP for a bit longer, but when they buy a new PC they'll "get" Vista anyway." - alspnost

I think what Messman means by that is business migrations. First of all, that's the business Novell is in. Secondly, how many average home PC users worry about the cost of migration to a new version of Windows? Not many, they don't have very high costs because they don't have to spend money on employee training or having custom apps and any large collections of data ported/moved over to the new OS. Furthermore, whereas businesses will have to purchase a relatively high number of new machines to run Vista, the home user only has to buy one. You're spot on about home users, but I don't think Mr. Messman was addressing their migrations.

I agree with your conclusion, it will be very hard to unseat Windows here in the US and in other highly economically developed nations. It will be easier in emerging economies like China though. I expect the gains in Europe he is seeing are in countries recently admitted to the EU, their businesses and economies are less modern and established and so are not as tied to Windows as your average company in the US is.

Novell: Vista will drive users to Linux (News.com)

Posted Sep 13, 2005 11:34 UTC (Tue) by carcassonne (guest, #31569) [Link]

"I expect the gains in Europe he is seeing are in countries recently admitted to the EU"

Could very well be, but it helps that there's at least one strong country in the neighborhood in which Linux has good coverage: Germany. The supermarket in the small town I used to go to for years had many Linux magazines (notice the plural) on a monthly basis. And regular computer magazines like c't and iX are also featuring favorable articles on Linux (as opposed to put-down articles on OS/2 way back then in North America blaming for instance its high memory and disk demands - 4 MB RAM that's way too much ! ;-). This is basic ground exposure. When we'll see at least one Linux magazine for sale in supermarkets in the USA and Canada then we'll know that Linux has hit 'ground exposure'. So far I didn't see any in supermarkets, only in one bookshop which has Linux Journal.

Novell: Vista will drive users to Linux (News.com)

Posted Sep 13, 2005 15:33 UTC (Tue) by AJWM (guest, #15888) [Link]

My local supermarket -- King Soopers, part of the Krogers empire -- carries Linux Magazine. Actually several of the nearby King Soopers do. Some of them used to carry Linux Journal also but I haven't seen it there for a while.

The local Borders Books has a half-dozen Linux magazine titles -- most of them imported.

Novell: Vista will drive users to Linux (News.com)

Posted Sep 12, 2005 23:35 UTC (Mon) by jayorke (guest, #10685) [Link]

He is commenting on business migrations, not individual home users. Companies don't buy new computers and accept whatever operating system is installed on them. Companies have migration plans and they will choose what operating system they get. Companies PAY for operating systems and PAY for office software. When it comes time for companies to choose between Vista and MS Office versus Linux and OpenOffice some will choose Linux. Codeweavers with their version 6 product will also help some migrations to happen because the biggest obstacle in the past was in house windows software that could not run in Linux.

Novell: Vista will drive users to Linux (News.com)

Posted Sep 13, 2005 15:42 UTC (Tue) by mmarq (guest, #2332) [Link]

" Few people will "pay" for Vista, just as few "paid" for XP, unless the whole industry paradigm changes. "

More than true, in my opinion, inside the grand masses of users from domestic to SOHO, and in less extend into SME...

If "things" starts to get hot to Microsoft, they can always *help*, anonimously, from behind the curtains, some 'crackers' delivering to the world ways of installing Vista as usual!!!... pressure for changing OS, in upgrading or installing new machines, if for nothing else for familiarity, will fall or be redirected to Vista and Microsoft Lap(again).

And *grand masses* adoption is more valuable than a "Billionss Dollars" marketing campaing, because they will push it foward to corporations and goverments, where the big money is, as it was in the pass...

This is what, IMO, Unix/Linux camp as always *FAILED* to understand properly...

Worst Microsoft, is trying to be the biggest hardware driver expert institution on the planet, by bullying the hardware industry into delivering them the source code of their drivers. The question is not certification for matters of security and sanity of their OS, it is just a damn plain out right theft, that will permit them uber-knowledge on how to lock completely a hardware platform in the future if they want to.

Because if Microsoft was really concerned about driver sanity and security, they will just build a save environment for drivers like in http://www.cl.cam.ac.uk/Research/SRG/netos/papers/2004-oa...

That is right!... there resides the biggest oportunity for the Unix/Linux camp into defeating Microsoft, and promoting an escape to hardware industry so more drivers and, and WITHOUT DOUBT, more open-sourced drivers could be delivered,... and WITHOUT DOUBT more more Linux adoption will follow, be it pre-installed or else.

All this if it wasn't that most of times ours prejudices and stubborness are ours biggest enemys.

Novell: Vista will drive users to Linux (News.com)

Posted Sep 27, 2005 2:44 UTC (Tue) by mindwalker (guest, #32693) [Link]

I have used Windows since I got my first computer. It is for lazy people. No real work involved. No real programs either. But the simple click and go lazy crap is what makes people want it. I have switched to linux myself and as hard as it is for me at times, I love it. But the fact that every single thing in windows is automated, is why Microsoft may never crash and burn as we wish. Gates has the lock down on the lazy world and that is all. Besides, has he not stolen to get what he has. Just my opinion.

Novell: Vista will drive users to Linux (News.com)

Posted Sep 12, 2005 20:39 UTC (Mon) by einstein (subscriber, #2052) [Link]

Umm, "limited functionality"?

If indeed "limited functionality" is what businesses are after, it would seem that ms vista is just what they will want. OTOH, the word "linux" and the phrase "limited functionality" seem a rather odd combination.

Just curious, is Novell Linux Desktop butchered in some way to limit the full range of functionality you'd normally have in a linux system?

Novell: Vista will drive users to Linux (News.com)

Posted Sep 12, 2005 20:51 UTC (Mon) by jreiser (subscriber, #11027) [Link]

"limited functionality" means that the end-user cannot install/modify/remove any software; the end-user sees only what the corporate IT department allows.

Novell: Vista will drive users to Linux (News.com)

Posted Sep 12, 2005 22:18 UTC (Mon) by bk (guest, #25617) [Link]

Interesting how free software is being used to further restrict what end users are allowed to do.

Novell: Vista will drive users to Linux (News.com)

Posted Sep 12, 2005 22:23 UTC (Mon) by rm6990 (guest, #30921) [Link]

Yes, those evil corporate executives are trying to prevent their employees from downloading random, untested software and installing it onto computers connected to their networks.

God help us all.

[/sarcasm]

Novell: Vista will drive users to Linux (News.com)

Posted Sep 13, 2005 0:56 UTC (Tue) by madscientist (subscriber, #16861) [Link]

I get the incentive. But, it sucks when you can't even change the display resolution on your system yourself, because doing so requires root privileges!!

There needs to be some intelligence applied to the basic concept of "locking down" the system. Linux, up until recently if at all, has not been designed well for this kind of deployment. There are far too many things that require root in Linux that normal users would obviously want to be able to do without invoking the Almighty IT Help Desk. Ubuntu is finally started to get on track with the idea of using xsudo to invoke privileged tools; that requires the user to enter only her own password, not the root password. One can easily imagine a customized sudoers file on such a system which restricted the kinds of tools users can invoke this way. I haven't tried any Fedora but the last Red Hat I used still hadn't made this connection: you can invoke privileged tools from menu items, etc. but to do so you must enter the root password, which is obviously a complete non-starter for most enterprise deployments. It's odd because Red Hat is supposed to be all about the enterprise these days.

BTW, there are very few Linux applications which cannot be installed by employees: only apps which require root to be invoked (typically ones that need to access a restricted network port or driver). As one example, I build and install the latest Gnome desktop (via the excellent GARNOME) by myself in my local workspace, and it works just ducky. No root privileges required; no extra packages installed. Of course, it does take a fair amount of know-how to do this (even for something like GARNOME). But, I do hand out tarballs to friends who admire my desktop :-).

Novell: Vista will drive users to Linux (News.com)

Posted Sep 13, 2005 1:03 UTC (Tue) by jhardin (guest, #3297) [Link]

> But, it sucks when you can't even change the display resolution on your
> system yourself, because doing so requires root privileges!!

Try [CTRL]-[ALT]-[KPPLUS] and [CTRL]-[ALT]-[KPMINUS]

Novell: Vista will drive users to Linux (News.com)

Posted Sep 13, 2005 11:44 UTC (Tue) by aya (guest, #19767) [Link]

That still doesn't change the desktop resolution, though - at least not with Window Maker on X.org, which means that I get to scroll around my desktop. It also means that if I start a program, it could do unpredictable things, like come into focus with useful parts of the window "off screen", or even make its window larger than the entire viewable-at-once screen.

So. Yes, it's a neat trick, but I don't think it's very useful for average users.

Average users...

Posted Sep 13, 2005 13:59 UTC (Tue) by niner (subscriber, #26151) [Link]

...may probably use KDE and it's KRandRTray which let's you switch monitor and desktop resolution and refresh rate. And because it can restore these settings on login it's a perfect replacement for xorg.conf changes in this regard. At least that's what I suggest to newbies and they seem to like it (I suppose it's not that different from the same functionality on Windows)

Novell: Vista will drive users to Linux (News.com)

Posted Sep 13, 2005 1:41 UTC (Tue) by bojan (subscriber, #14302) [Link]

> I haven't tried any Fedora but the last Red Hat I used still hadn't made this connection: you can invoke privileged tools from menu items, etc. but to do so you must enter the root password, which is obviously a complete non-starter for most enterprise deployments.

Although the following isn't the default, it is trivial to set up:

https://www.redhat.com/archives/fedora-list/2005-March/ms...

Novell: Vista will drive users to Linux (News.com)

Posted Sep 13, 2005 15:15 UTC (Tue) by madscientist (subscriber, #16861) [Link]

It's good there's a way, now: of course note that this requires FC3 and per-system custom configuration.

Novell: Vista will drive users to Linux (News.com)

Posted Sep 13, 2005 23:12 UTC (Tue) by bojan (subscriber, #14302) [Link]

Nothing below FC3 in Fedora space is being maintained anyway (in RHEL world, this probably means version 4 and above). I don't see why "per-system custom configuration" is a problem for business desktops. That's what kickstart is for...

Novell: Vista will drive users to Linux (News.com)

Posted Sep 13, 2005 4:20 UTC (Tue) by khim (subscriber, #9252) [Link]

BTW, there are very few Linux applications which cannot be installed by employees: only apps which require root to be invoked (typically ones that need to access a restricted network port or driver).

Ever heard about noexec option ? It's obvious step for "vertical industry".

Novell: Vista will drive users to Linux (News.com)

Posted Sep 13, 2005 9:02 UTC (Tue) by nix (subscriber, #2304) [Link]

I guess they're not trying to stop people who know about e.g.

/lib/ld-linux.so.2 /some/noexec/binary

then?

Novell: Vista will drive users to Linux (News.com)

Posted Sep 13, 2005 15:12 UTC (Tue) by madscientist (subscriber, #16861) [Link]

Noexec might be useful in some very limited areas where you're looking for not much more than a kiosk, but setting it on the home directory (etc.) in a typical enterprise deployment seems certain to be too restrictive.

Novell: Vista will drive users to Linux (News.com)

Posted Sep 13, 2005 8:28 UTC (Tue) by jamesh (guest, #1159) [Link]

If all the available resolutions are configured in the xorg.conf file, you should be able to switch between them with the RANDR extension.

This can either be done with the command line xrandr program, or the Gnome "Screen Resolution" control panel (the second option will remember your resolution for the next time you log in). This does not require root privileges.

There are other areas where people are working on reducing the need for root access (usually by automatically configuring devices on detection rather than requiring the user to do so), such as NetworkManager and HAL.

Novell: Vista will drive users to Linux (News.com)

Posted Sep 13, 2005 0:26 UTC (Tue) by einstein (subscriber, #2052) [Link]

I'm suppose I'm not sufficiently familiar with newspeak, but "limited functionality" is not what comes to mind when I think of linux, locked down or not.

How can I express this to the average Joe? Consider a linux workstation, which comes with the rich heritage and functionality of the standard unix services at it's disposal. Of course it can juggle all sorts of interesting tasks, many of which a windows pc cannot properly accomplish. Yet that same workstation might also be "locked down" such that end users not only can't install system software (already the default case for linux) but also can't change their wallpaper or other configuration settings.

I would call that a "locked down workstation", not a "workstation of reduced functionality", as there is a huge difference in the meaning of the two terms. The phrase "limited functionality" suggests a crippled or gimpy OS, while "locked down" really gets at the heart of what we're talking about, and is not nearly so negative a connotation.

Perhaps Novell could be a bit more clever in their choice of words.

Novell: Vista will drive users to Linux (News.com)

Posted Sep 12, 2005 21:01 UTC (Mon) by chohman (guest, #5519) [Link]

Allow me to help assuage your curiosity. In a businees enterprise environment, it is very common to "lock down" user workstations: users are not allowed to install software, add devices, set a screen saver, change their wallpaper. The point is to simplify administration, avoid combinatorial explosions in support, and perhaps keep a larger handle on the virus/trojan/malware issue.
If it strikes you that this extra functionality was part of why we moved off dumb terminals in the first place, this is the time to reflect on how poorly the "fat client" implementations in widest use today are a poor fit to the realities of enterprise desktop computing.
There is a breathtaking array of products layered in to help manage the support of large groups of desktop systems. By-user customization/configuration and ease of support are the 2 poles of a continuum.

Regards.

Novell: Vista will drive users to Linux (News.com)

Posted Sep 13, 2005 7:25 UTC (Tue) by Wol (guest, #4433) [Link]

Businesses just have to look at City of Largo when they think of locking down their workstations.

The IT people there - BECAUSE they are basically linux thin client - have allowed staff free reign in customising their desktop. It works because (a) IT's response to a problem is simply to overwrite the custom config with the default, and (b) because it's Linux the user is restricted to changing just the eye-candy and rarely has a problem.

The result is that users are well happy with a desktop that is both usable and comfortable.

Cheers,
Wol

Novell: Vista will drive users to Linux (News.com)

Posted Sep 13, 2005 15:18 UTC (Tue) by madscientist (subscriber, #16861) [Link]

I think we're talking about different levels of "locking down". Most people on this thread seem to be discussing adding new packages to the system and doing other customizations that require root privileges. Handing out root to your user base is considered by most IT shops to be a sure way to spend all your time re-imaging systems.

You're talking about letting users customize the desktop (wallpapers, themes, menus, etc. etc.) I doubt you'll find much disagreement that allowing this kind of thing is fine (anyway, I've not worked anywhere that the desktop was locked down that far).

Novell: Vista will drive users to Linux (News.com)

Posted Sep 14, 2005 7:46 UTC (Wed) by Wol (guest, #4433) [Link]

I have.

I'm a developer.

I can install programs and do all sorts of things like that - I just can't change my screensaver or wallpaper, and probably can't change my theme...

Cheers,
Wol

Novell: Vista will drive users to Linux (News.com)

Posted Sep 14, 2005 18:07 UTC (Wed) by man_ls (subscriber, #15091) [Link]

(anyway, I've not worked anywhere that the desktop was locked down that far).
I have too. In places where you cannot change the resolution, cannot install anything that required admin privileges... but then it was on Windows.

Novell: Vista will drive users to Linux (News.com)

Posted Sep 13, 2005 11:36 UTC (Tue) by carcassonne (guest, #31569) [Link]

"Just curious, is Novell Linux Desktop butchered in some way to limit the full range of functionality you'd normally have in a linux system?"

No mp3 support ?

(I wonder if that's good or bad - I certainly use ogg for my own).

Novell: Vista will drive users to Linux (News.com)

Posted Sep 13, 2005 15:41 UTC (Tue) by AJWM (guest, #15888) [Link]

Think "point of sale" terminals, order-entry devices, customer service workstations, etc. These are computers (or clients) dedicated to running one specific application and must do so reliably with solid uptime. More likely than not, the application's GUI is optimized for a particular screen size and resolution so no, you don't want the employee changing even that.

In some cases -- think info kiosks or automated self-checkout systems in stores -- there might not even be a single user, but rather many short-interval users. The last thing you want on an automated checkout system is some customer trying to load his own software or change system settings.

Vista isn't "driving" anything

Posted Sep 12, 2005 22:04 UTC (Mon) by b7j0c (subscriber, #27559) [Link]

People will get Vista when they buy a new PC, period.

Most other home users will not care - look at how many still use Win98 and even earlier versions.

Business users will likely be even more hesitant/lazy than home users. Why would they upgrade their perfectly functional and already-paid-for Win2k environments? If XP didn't unwedge Win2k, why would Vista?

My guess is that Microsoft will be stymied by lack of interest in this non-product, which reviews so far have indicated is turning out to be a minor shift, as more and more tech falls of the roadmap.

Vista isn't "driving" anything

Posted Sep 12, 2005 22:26 UTC (Mon) by rm6990 (guest, #30921) [Link]

Home users are not the issue in this article.

As for Windows 2000, it was released only a year before XP, so businesses had no reason to migrate. Now they will have to soon, as 2000 support comes to an end. They will have to choose between Vista, OS X or Linux.

Vista isn't "driving" anything

Posted Sep 13, 2005 3:57 UTC (Tue) by b7j0c (subscriber, #27559) [Link]

>> Now they will have to soon, as 2000 support comes to an end.

wrong!! by this time they have already figured out how to support win2k for themselves and won't be that concerned about missing backported updates, because of course those updates will only be for vulnerabilities in Vista in any case.

in fact you could see use of Win2k increase as businesses realize it is a much less popular target for attacks, and its simpler approach has fewer vulnerabilities.

if microsoft is banking on business customers, or if even Novell is banking on a mass migration to linux when Vista comes out, they will be disappointed. no one has a reason to unload win2k yet. try again in 2012 or so.

Vista isn't "driving" anything

Posted Sep 13, 2005 4:29 UTC (Tue) by khim (subscriber, #9252) [Link]

in fact you could see use of Win2k increase as businesses realize it is a much less popular target for attacks, and its simpler approach has fewer vulnerabilities.

This is already covered: you can not buy Win2k today and existing contracts will only go so far. After that... you are forced to switch!

Existing contracts can go for a few years yet and of course you can postpone switch to 2010 if you have appropriate contract in place, but some businesses do not.

Vista isn't "driving" anything

Posted Sep 13, 2005 16:18 UTC (Tue) by b7j0c (subscriber, #27559) [Link]

>> This is already covered: you can not buy Win2k today

you can't buy win98 either but that hasn't stopped millions of people from using it.

businesses will unload win2k when it stops working for them, don't confuse that with the date that microsoft tells them. and don't think the scare tactic of windows update will work, these admins know what sysems are impacted by vulnerabilities. firefox will not stop working on win2k because microsoft shuts off update.

and once again, my bet is that when they see the issues with vista, practically no one will be discussing a mass upgrade...which is exactly the sound logic they applied to xp.

Vista isn't "driving" anything

Posted Sep 13, 2005 15:49 UTC (Tue) by AJWM (guest, #15888) [Link]

by this time they have already figured out how to support win2k for themselves

Right, and how do they do that without source? There's no third party support company out there issuing patches for newly-discovered vulnerabilities -- or are you actually suggesting that W2K will have magically fixed every known and as yet unknown vulnerability when MS ends its life?

Vista isn't "driving" anything

Posted Sep 13, 2005 16:14 UTC (Tue) by b7j0c (subscriber, #27559) [Link]

Vista bugs will impact Vista, not Win2k, and everyone managing Win2k knows that it is far less exploited now than XP, and Vista will be the new target with new bugs against new code. Most Win2k admins will be able to easily ignore patches against Vista.

Vista isn't "driving" anything

Posted Sep 13, 2005 20:52 UTC (Tue) by NightMonkey (subscriber, #23051) [Link]

"Most Win2k admins will be able to easily ignore patches against Vista."

Were it only true. What has been shown with the NT 4.0 phase-out is that if there is a security hole in common subsystem code between a shipping version of Windows and a non-shipping version, Microsoft will not necessarily mention that the non-shipping version is also vulnerable, and also may not issue a patch at all, even if the vulnerability is acknowledged. The same could easily happen for the Win2K phase-out.

In that case, Win2K Admins would be lax to not track the Vista security issues as the appear.

Vista isn't "driving" anything

Posted Sep 13, 2005 17:00 UTC (Tue) by mmarq (guest, #2332) [Link]

" if microsoft is banking on business customers... "

On who else could they be banking on ?... (the rest is a tiny fraction).

" if even Novell is banking on a mass migration to linux when Vista comes out, they will be disappointed. no one has a reason to unload win2k yet. try again in 2012 or so. "

Funny how many businesses are not weager to adopt better solutions . How about the better network interface and mulimedia capabilitys of XP ?.. how about *Transparent* internet acess for aplications if XAML on Vista gets to deliver what it promisses ?..

*** How true isn't it, that XUL if it was developed, and it could very easly, to speak most of the toolkits (at least qt and gtk) instead of only the Mozilla one, based on 'Cairo/arthur/glitz' on something else common underneath, could deliver a fatal blow into this menace !? ***

Many local IT paradigmas have their own reality, but in general i'm leeded into beliving that XP has already equaled or surpassed the total som of 9x and 2k put togheter, in the western part of the world.

Vista isn't "driving" anything

Posted Sep 13, 2005 14:26 UTC (Tue) by cdmiller (subscriber, #2813) [Link]

Business users will receive Vista with every new PC as well...

Vista isn't "driving" anything

Posted Sep 13, 2005 15:21 UTC (Tue) by madscientist (subscriber, #16861) [Link]

This is not true of any reasonbly-sized enterprise. These companies typically have their own images they install, with local software already installed, etc.; they don't buy systems off the retail Dell web site and plop them down as-delivered into peoples' offices.

Vista isn't "driving" anything

Posted Sep 13, 2005 17:50 UTC (Tue) by sjj (subscriber, #2020) [Link]

And if they are big enough, *Dell* will put the company's custom image on the PCs.

Novell: Vista will drive users to Linux (News.com)

Posted Sep 13, 2005 16:08 UTC (Tue) by CyberDog (guest, #29668) [Link]

The first problem is that a large corporation of more than one department is unlikely to make the jump to Vista in one leap. For that reason, they'll need compatibility between Windows versions. While this is of course possible with Linux clients, sys admins and planners tend to avoid mixing OS's in a production environment. Vista will be favored simply because it's the logical extension of the rest of the corporation's Windows environment.

By extension of this, there's compatibility with proprietary apps and software. The old excuse that IE is around because corporation intranets rely on it isn't a myth, and Windows will tend to persist for the same reasons. Corporation infrastructure will often rely on it to some degree, so making the Linux switch with end users may also entail a much more drastic infrastructure overhaul...big potential costs there.

Finally, is the often overlooked "cost" of Linux migration: the administration. First of all, truly expert Linux admins are few and far between, so such a migration will involve hiring and keeping skilled Linux admins...lets face it, any dummy can roll out a Windows environment. This means the conversion will also likely mean a staff changeover, or at least a staff addition, which is a big long-term cost issue.

Novell: Vista will drive users to Linux (News.com)

Posted Sep 14, 2005 15:07 UTC (Wed) by mikec (guest, #30884) [Link]

My guess is that the ultimate demise of the monopoly as we see it today will be one of the following:

a. forceable document standardization - starting to see this from municipalities around the world - they have been burned by Word-Wordperfect and even Word-Word compatibility issues and are starting to demand truely standard and open document specification. It remains to be seen whether this will work, regulation rarely does, but it is interesting...

b. a profoundly catastrophic security event - as Alan Cox says (para) "it is a good thing that people are more interested in controlling machines than destroying them"... If ever that changed we could see a day when virtually evey windows box connected to the net is destroyed within hours...

c. OSes finally stabilize to the point that they are no more interesting than the BIOS.. frankly, I am surprised this has not already happened... Techincally, the "innovation" has slowed, but so far the bloat of current OSes (of all forms) seems to have been the thing keeping them from being flashed into the MB/CPU directly to the point that you buy a MB and it boots up to a shell and asks you what you want to do next... (install the MS window manager or the Linux window manager...

So, I doubt it will be cost of migration... If it is "a" or "c" above, it will be the marginalization of the OS that does MS in... If it is "b" well, for those who stocked up on canned food and toilet paper it will be a fun show... for others it will be somewhat less amusing...

/mike

Novell: Vista will drive users to Linux (News.com)

Posted Sep 14, 2005 18:06 UTC (Wed) by mmarq (guest, #2332) [Link]

hmmm...

a) This point already depends on plugins(s) that do the translation to the different formats.

b) It is only Microsoft that "depends" on a network of crackers!( they are not making them or promoting them, only taking advantage of the situation, inspite of the bad business they represent),... i belive they *prefer* to keep the grand mass of users like pirates than to distribute a 'freeware' version, easly adoptable by businesses, and worst of all with much less locking capabilities. Never the less their DRM schemes will prevent much of the possible catastrofic events... even be good for Vista adoption if served in small doses, if they can manage to keep an edge.

c)This is the fulcral point. They will never do nothing to prevent their dominium of the computational machine. The whole hardware industry knows Microsoft means business by helping them by bloat and user control, selling new machines. Its a devil's pact that will force the hardware industry to pay vassalage to Microsoft... but they are addicted, hocked for not saying forced, tangled by tremendous competitive pressure...

" CONTROL OF THE MACHINE MEANS CONTROL OF THE WHOLE IT PARADIGMA "

Force a change in this paradigma and you will be forcing the whole scenario!... in the ultimate scenario, microsoft has to produce their own machines parting from the XBOX as example *( so there is more than one advantageous reason for them wanting to see everybody driver code)*, or we all be caming to this same site here posting comments for people take pitty on Microsoft, because *IS* the hardware industry that will be trying to kill them by kicking them in the head, and not the unpolite rebel hacker.

Novell: Vista will drive users to Linux (News.com)

Posted Sep 15, 2005 16:40 UTC (Thu) by mikec (guest, #30884) [Link]

Bloat driving harware consuption has indeed been the rule, but it is breaking down by virtue of having to power and cool 100W+ systems...

We are seeing the begining of the "other power" (i.e. Watts/flop) coming into play which puts an boundary on the previously presumed to be infinite capacity of MS to bloat it up and cause HW upgrade cycles...

The "market" will obviously tolerate a lot crap for a long time, but eventually even something as slow and dull as "the consumer" will realize that they can choose between the thing that runs for days on a small battery and the Nitrogen cooled multi-kilowatt powered beast required to read your email with the latest version windows .... and the change begins...

/mike

Novell: Vista will drive users to Linux (News.com)

Posted Sep 16, 2005 19:30 UTC (Fri) by mmarq (guest, #2332) [Link]

" We are seeing the begining of the "other power" (i.e. Watts/flop) coming into play which puts an boundary on the previously presumed to be infinite capacity of MS to bloat it up and cause HW upgrade cycles... "

Agreed.

What i fail to see is where this will exclude Microsoft from being the dominant force in the playground. Bloat does not necessarly mean that you must have bigger OSes and apllications footprint, it can also mean that you can have liter OSes and Applications but you have instead unnecessary features like DRM schemes and driver or other certification issues. **Domination of the machine still means domination of the whole IT paradigma**, and DRM and certification is worst for "us" and better for MS than OSes and apllications footprint.

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