This may be an indication of policy change

Posted Sep 1, 2005 16:51 UTC (Thu) by TxtEdMacs (subscriber, #5983) [Link]

Preceptive! However, the possibility that something akin to what I outlined is not really that big a stretch.

On reflection I have a much bleaker view, assuming the propaganda being issued has a basis. First: currently the Communist Party long ago lost the perception that it owned the right to govern China. It is more a case of tolerating the devil you know over the uncertainties unleashed when the lowest levels of Chinese society finally wipe out the former rulers. The growing middle class is pampered to keep them from starting the overthrow of the known to be corrupt regime. Moreover, in the provinces where the majority of the population still resides the central government may have only tenuous control. There the pattern has been force, payoffs and dividing the opposition's incipient leadership by the means listed.

If you accept that as a given, what does the Chinese leadership have to gain by following the path MS offers? In China the push to Linux and open programming was based upon their perceived self interest. If they relied upon Windows, they could be easily penetrated by U.S. spy agencies. However, as in all engineering questions this cuts in more than one direction. Free software to the populous could lead to circumvention of the controls the party attempts to employ to keep the population uninformed and under control. Should MS offer complete access to the entire code base of each Windows distribution distributed in China they could be assured the NSA would not have easy access while they could refine methods to open the general population to increased surveillance. To China's current elite that is a win-win proposition. To MS that is a bit of a loss to a future big win, by discouraging a massive move to Linux. Some could even call this a treasonous move, where even long term MS could not be assured of increased profitability even as they compromise U.S security interests. However, MS could compensate by higher charges where the inertia, in several western countries, and the fear of change would keep the Windows market fairly large. If this were coupled with legislation to either make Linux illegal or just discouraging its use MS would profit immensely. Well regarding western security interests that's not part of MS's game.

The result would be: wherever it resides MS would be in the pocket of the Chinese and many western (formally liberal) democracies would be on the road to third world status with the U.S.A. leading the way. Look at Hong Kong - the elite back the dictatorship, it's the general population that is resisting. Freedom is not cheap or won easily.