The Grumpy Editor's guide to 2005

The Grumpy Editor's guide to 2005

OK, I might step on some toes here, but of the areas I know enough about
to make any educated guesses of my own, the two hardest to call here might
be the no 2.7 kernel series (I agree out thru say 3Q, but think something
might develop by 4Q), and that Debian will actually get a stable release
out (it has been delayed so often, will this /actually/ be the year it
happens?). Still, assuming Debian does get one out, the rest of that
prediction isn't even really a prediction -- the delay has been so long
that the relevance of Debian stable has been in question for some time.
Perhaps they will end up doing basically what the kernel did, dumping the
idea of totally stable, while leaving ultra-stable support, for those
nervous about the stability and testing of a more fast-moving product, to
the distributions based on the product. As with the kernel, there are
enough distributions based on it to make that at least an option.

Back to the kernel, I think it's possible there'll be something big enough
to warrant a 2.7 (under the new definition) by 4Q2005. Again, as those
following kernel developments certainly already know by now, this 2.7
won't be a traditional development kernel on the order of 2.5, but would
be a branch to develop a specific, very kernel code invasive, feature.
Changes other than that feature would be synced between the two kernels
very frequently, such that said developing feature was the only difference
and backporting to the stable kernel wouldn't be an issue. Upon
maturation of the feature into stability, it would be merged back into
mainline which then might become 2.8 or 3.0. Alternatively, if the
feature proved a bad decision, 2.7 would be scrapped and we'd continue
with 2.6. While this certainly isn't a traditional development kernel
2.7, a lot can happen in 9 months, and it's just possible something like
this might. Thus, predicting that it won't is IMO a pretty bold
prediction, even if the likelihood is only perhaps 10-25%, which is where
I'd put it, because it could seem so obvious in hindsight.

Many of the predictions seem fairly safe. That xorg will break into its
own after a year of coming to terms with the state of things when it
originated, given that there has already been a release with /some/ new
code, seems pretty safe, even if /very/ significant. Desktop
infrastructure such as HAL and D-BUS finally becoming semi-standard seems
pretty safe as well, given they seem on the cusp of it at this point and
that's what everyone is already planning for. Still, again, despite it
being obvious, its actual occurrence is quite significant.

That Red Hat will find something significant to do with its cash pile also
seems obvious, tho everybody's kind of in suspense as to /what/ that might
be. Anybody care to predict that what was marketed as simply maximizing
their ability to take advantage of any opportunities that present
themselves might remain that way thru the entire year -- that they /won't/
find such a natural opportunity of any significance? Now /that/ would be
a bold prediction, even tho no one has any idea what they'll do with that
money at present.

The personal media player prediction seems one of the more fascinating in
what it might bring in terms of SCO level legal "entertainment". Of
significance this year is that SCO and such direct legal threats (even
from MS) seem less of a menace, while the greatest danger seems to be
indirect, patent and other IP legislation changes. Of course, at the same
time, these present the greatest opportunity for positive change. As SCO
was the area of potentially greatest danger last year, changing IP laws
must be the greatest danger yet opportunity this year.

Of interest to me because I predicted it and switched to Linux and
libreware as a result of that prediction, the spyware/adware problem is
significant in its mention. Back in the lead-up to what became eXPrivacy,
I found I could not personally accept the precedents set by the
anti-privacy/anti-piracy forced registration. To me, that set a precedent
in disrespect for the user that I feared to think of the consequences of.
There were all sorts of reasons not to do it (including the fact that to
my mind, there was no clearer demonstration that MS /knew/ it was a
monopoly, since it had time and again demonstrated it was to smart to
shoot itself in the competitive foot like that when there was viable
competition around), and no valid reason to actually /do/ it, save to
demonstrate that it /could/ do it, by shear power of its monopoly, and
that users (to its way of thinking) had no viable recourse at all.

Several years later, and that disrespect for the user being master of his
own system has lead to everyone and their brother trying to get a piece of
the malware action. I jumped off the MS platform because they pushed me,
by pushing terms I could not and would not accept. Now, I look at all
those that didn't jump, and see what they are subject to, and am glad
I /did/ jump. MS opened the gates and gave its official blessing, and
it's only going to get worse for those remaining on the platform.
"MSWormOS" indeed, never could I have dreamed that nick would be so
apropos when I coined it.

What with that for the home crowd, and licensing 6.0 for the corporate
crowd, I couldn't believe my eyes how bumbling MS was being at the time.
They had the market monopoly, and must have truly believed that made them
invincible. Now their actions are coming home to rest, and now with
Firefox, for the first time in desktop history AFAIK, MS is losing market
share in real, measurable, numbers. This prediction may prove I'm an
optimist, but I predict this is the first of a long line of similar
numbers, that computer historians will point to the MS actions with XP and
Licensing 6.0 as the turning point, with spyware/adware the ultimate
result of the policies of eXPrivacy, and the Firefox/IE share numbers that
came out at the end of 2004 the first real numbers indication of a
monopoly in decline. Linux was the right alternative at the right time,
they will say, as MS' numbers continue to plunge past Linux parity... tho
obviously that won't be /this/ year, but I predict we /will/ see a few
more numbers indicating this shift, /this/ year. That's MY bold
prediction.

One more thing. The thing that took everybody by surprise last year was
the xfree/xorg development. In hindsight, the signs were there, but
either nobody saw them, or nobody was bold enough to make the prediction.
Anybody care to make a bold prediction of an "upset development" for this
year? I'm afraid I don't see anything /that/ big /I/ can predict.

Duncan