OSDL/IDC's Linux market predictions

Linux Market to Exceed $35 Billion by 2008

Worldwide Market for Packaged Software on Linux Projected to Reach $14
Billion by 2008 

BEAVERTON, Ore.   December 15, 2004   The Open Source Development Labs
(OSDL), a global consortium dedicated to accelerating the adoption of Linux
in the enterprise, today announced the completion of a global Linux market
share and forecast study conducted by market research firm IDC that predicts
the overall market revenue for desktops, servers, and packaged software
running on Linux will exceed $35 billion by 2008. 

The new study presents a measurement of shipments and the installed base of
servers and PCs running Linux that takes into consideration Linux shipped
with new hardware deliveries, Linux running aboard redeployed systems, and
instances where Linux is used as a guest operating system.  When this
expanded view of the marketplace is considered, the resulting server market
for shipments and redeployments with Linux is increased by 36% over net new
shipments in 2004.   

Another key finding of interest to independent software vendors and customers
is predicted revenue growth for packaged applications and infrastructure
software running on Linux, a market opportunity IDC forecasts will exceed $14
billion in the next four years, growing at a 2003-2008 compound annual rate
of more than 44 percent.

"This is the first authoritative and comprehensive snapshot of how people
truly use Linux and it's not surprising for us to see that the adoption is
far ahead of even some of the most optimistic estimates," said Stuart Cohen,
CEO of OSDL. 

Other key findings from the IDC report include:

1.	The combined worldwide market for desktops, servers, and packaged software
running on Linux is forecast to grow at a 2003-2008 compound annual growth
rate of 25.9 percent worldwide, reaching $35.7 billion by 2008.
2.	The worldwide market for software on Linux is forecast to exceed $14
billion by 2008 with a 2003-2008 compound annual growth rate of 44.3 percent.
3.	New and redeployed PCs running Linux is a market forecast to grow to $10
billion and 17 million units by 2008 with an installed base of over 42.6
million units.
4.	Servers running Linux as either a primary or secondary operating system is
a market forecast to exceed $11 billion and 3.3 million units by 2008 with an
installed base of more than 9.7 million units and a compound annual growth
rate of 24.5 percent worldwide.

5.	The installed base of servers running Linux is 37 percent larger than
installed base for net new systems shipped with Linux as a primary operating
system alone in 2004.  With this expanded view of the Linux market, this
study takes into account segments not previously measured. This broader
perspective considers systems that are reconfigured in the field with Linux
as either a secondary operating system or as a replacement of the original
operating system. 

The study utilized existing IDC research conducted on server hardware, PC
hardware, software, and other research programs in conjunction with new
primary research, including a demand-side study that covered ten countries
around the world on customer adoption, plans and perceptions relating to
Linux. Some data inputs used in conjunction with IDC's syndicated research
came from a study funded by OSDL.

"When all manifestations of Linux operating systems are counted, Linux is
clearly a mainstream solution," said Vernon Turner, group vice president and
general manager of Enterprise Computing research at IDC. "Today, IDC sees a
shift where Linux server operating environment deployments are moving to
favor the use of enterprise server hardware. This transition is being driven
by the increasing robustness of Linux and the increasingly critical nature of
the applications deployed on Linux."

"Linux is forecast to be the fasted growing server operating system
environment, and the overall Linux solution stack is growing at a
commensurate rate," concluded Cohen. "What this research shows is the
significant and increasing influence of Linux on the enterprise IT
marketplace."

A summary of the IDC report is available on the OSDL Web site at
http://www.osdl.org/docs/linux_market_overview.pdf

The new report, called Worldwide Linux 2004-2008 Forecast: Moving from Niche
to Mainstream (IDC #32424), is now available from IDC. To purchase this
document, please call IDC's Sales hotline at 508-999-7988 or email
sales@idc.com. 


About Open Source Development Labs (OSDL) 
OSDL - home to Linus Torvalds, the creator of Linux - is dedicated to
accelerating the growth and adoption of Linux. Founded in 2000 by CA,
Fujitsu, Hitachi, HP, IBM, Intel and NEC, OSDL is a non-profit organization
at the center of Linux supported by a global consortium of more than 60 of
the world's largest Linux customers and IT industry leaders. OSDL sponsors
industry-wide initiatives around Linux in telecommunications, in the
enterprise data center and on corporate desktops. The Lab also provides Linux
expertise and computing and test facilities in the United States and Japan
available to developers around the world. Visit OSDL on the Web at
http://www.osdl.org/. 

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trademark of Linus Torvalds. Third party marks and brands are the property of
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