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Actually, 400 M this year is a little lowActually, 400 M this year is a little lowPosted Sep 1, 2004 20:55 UTC (Wed) by AJWM (subscriber, #15888)In reply to: Actually, 400 M this year is a little low by gilb Parent article: Cell Phones: Don't Count Linux Out (Business Week) Yes, it is an insanely large number. No kidding. I rather suspect that some breathless analysts or vendors have done some ridiculous extrapolation of some transient exponential growth, rather than looking at the reality of the physical limits of the market. Unless, of course, we're looking at disposable (or almost so) phones. Not completely out of the question, I suppose.
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Actually, 400 M this year is a little low Posted Sep 1, 2004 21:34 UTC (Wed) by gilb (subscriber, #11728) [Link] Sorry that didn't come across as I intended. The 600 M handsets for 2004 is not unreasonable estimate, after all they did 157 M in the first quarter, which is clearly on pace for 600 M this year.
The stats are (from Gartner):
(Note that 2001 was a very bad year, it was the first year that sales didn't increase year over year. It had been averaging 60% CAGR.)
The above are all "actual" numbers, not predictions. The analysts have to estimate the numbers sold, but the are accurate to probably +/-5%.
These sort of predictions for the next year are taken pretty seriously by the suppliers and vendors, so the analysts don't do the usual "hockey-stick" approach to predicting volumes.
600M of any complete product is an insanely big number and yet the cell phone manufacturers will likely hit it this year. (PCs, including laptops are about 150 M/year, cars worldwide are around 40-50M/yr).
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